The Bitcoin return triangle: CHF 1,000 a month into BTC
Bitcoin
Inspired by the return triangles of the Deutsches Aktieninstitut, here’s the same idea for Bitcoin: a theoretical version of my own savings plan, started in each of the past 10 years. Each cell is a plan that starts in January of the row’s year and is valued at the end of the column’s year.
The triangle is deliberately theoretical:
- CHF 1,000 a month, no transaction costs. The full amount buys BTC.
- Bought at each month’s closing price, on the last day of the month.
- Valued at the closing price at the end of the exit year. The latest month-end with a closing price is August 31, 2026, so 2026 is a year-to-date figure.
- Launched in 2025. The row of plans started in the year the actual plan was launched is outlined in orange.
Each cell shows the PnL in CHF, value minus everything paid in, with the annualized money-weighted return (IRR) in brackets, the same reading as the Deutsches Aktieninstitut triangles. The cell color follows the return in brackets. One-year plans annualize a few months of average holding time, which inflates the diagonal, so the colors cap at ±100% a year. PnL grows with the amount paid in: a plan running from 2017 has paid in up to CHF 116,000, one starting in 2026 only CHF 8,000 so far.
How the actual plan differs
The theoretical version of the actual plan, from January 2025 to August 31, 2026, is at −CHF 1,499 (−7.5%), shown in the outlined 2025/2026 cell. The August 31, 2026 row of the full transaction log shows −CHF 1,859 (−9.4%) for the real purchases. The percentage here is the total return, the same measure as the log’s PnL (%), not the annualized return shown in the triangle. The actual plan differs from the theory in four ways:
| Step | Difference | PnL (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Theoretical plan | −CHF 1,499 (−7.5%) | |
| Amount paid other than CHF 1,000 | +CHF 43 | −CHF 1,456 (−7.3%) |
| Fees and spread | −CHF 343 | −CHF 1,799 (−9.1%) |
| Settlement date and Kraken price per purchase | −CHF 35 | −CHF 1,834 (−9.2%) |
| Valued at Kraken’s close | −CHF 24 | −CHF 1,859 (−9.4%) |
- Amount paid other than CHF 1,000. January 2025: CHF 866, settled on February 3, 2025. Where the amount paid isn’t known, it assumes 2% costs on the BTC received.
- Fees and spread. Every purchase pays fees and a spread, estimated at 1.8% of the CHF paid, or CHF 362 in total. The estimate is the CHF paid minus the value of the BTC received at that day’s closing price. The theory has no costs. In the table, the fees count at what the BTC they would have bought is worth on August 31, 2026, −CHF 343.
- Settlement date and Kraken price. The actual purchases settle on or around the last business day of the month, and the log prices them at Kraken’s BTC/CHF close on that day. The theory uses the calendar month-end and Bitstamp’s BTC/USD close converted at the ECB’s USD/CHF rate.
- Valued at Kraken’s close. The log values the BTC at Kraken’s August 31, 2026 close of CHF 63,443, the theory at the August 31, 2026 close of CHF 63,529.
Methodology and caveats
- The triangle’s BTC/CHF price is Bitstamp’s daily BTC/USD close (UTC) multiplied by the European Central Bank’s USD/CHF reference rate. Kraken’s BTC/CHF prices, used for the transaction log, only go back about two years.
- The log’s fees and spread are estimated from the CHF paid, the BTC received and Kraken’s daily close, not taken from the provider’s actual execution price and fee.
- Taxes are ignored. Holdings are valued at the market price, with no sale and no selling fees.
- Ten years is a short history for an asset this volatile, and the earliest entry years are dominated by a few large bull markets. Past returns are not a reliable indicator of future returns.